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BOX-FOLDER-REPORT: 3-13-10
TITLE:             Albanian Population Growth
BY:                Louis Zanga
DATE:              1983-10-31
COUNTRY:           Albania
ORIGINAL SUBJECT:  RAD Background Report/253

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RFE-RL

RADIO FREE EUROPE

RAD Background Report/253
(East)
31 October 1983

ALBANIAN POPULATION GROWTH

by Louis Zanga

Summary: This paper reviews the latest data on
the population growth in both Albania proper and
the largely Albanian-inhabited province of
Kosovo. The Albanians have the highest growth
rate in Europe, with those from Kosovo having a
higher rate of growth than in Albania. In Kosovo,
which is one-third as large as Serbia, the
population increase this year will be 39,000, whereas
in Serbia it will only be 30,000. Suggestions
have been made to curb the high rate of growth.
In Albania the opposite is the case, with the
authorities urging a continued population
increase.

* * *

The Albanian population (in Albania and in neighboring
Yugoslavia) has the highest growth rate in Europe, with an annual
increase of 100,000 people. In Albania proper, with a current
total population of 2,800,000 the annual population growth for
the past 10 years has been 54,000 (2.2% a year).[1] The annual
population growth of Yugoslavia's Autonomous Socialist Province
of Kosovo (with some 1,500,000 Albanian inhabitants) is 39,000
(2.6% a year).[2] If one takes into account the growth of the
approximately 400,000 Albanians living in the republics of
Macedonia and Montenegro, then the total annual increase easily
reaches the 100,000 mark.

The demographic structure of the Albanians in the Balkans is
of more than local and sociological interest. It has a potential
effect on international relations in a region where two opposing
systems exist and actively compete for ethnic Albanian loyalties:
sovereign, "Stalinist" Albania and Kosovo, an autonomous province
of "Titoist" Yugoslavia. Further complicationg factors are the
official, nationalistic claim of the Tirana leaders that theirs
is the motherland of all Albanians; Kosovo's Serb-Albanian
antagonisms; and the question of preventing the formation of a pure
Albanian ethnic bloc in Kosovo. The 1971 census showed the

This material was prepared for the use of the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

[page 2]

RAD BR/253

Albanians' numerical preponderance in Kosovo to be 73.6%. This
preponderance remains unchallenged and is growing, because of the
high birthrate of the Albanians and the emigration of Serbs and
Montenegrins from the province. Today, the Albanian nationality
group is 77-80% of Kosovo's total population.

Two studies from Albania and Kosovo about the regions'
respective policies on population growth recently became available.
In this field, too, there are strong differences in ideology and
demographic policy. In Kosovo, for example, despite some signs of
growth "transition," the population continues to increase at
dramatic rates, the highest recorded in Yugoslavia as a whole. As a
consequence, senior provincial officials have not begun to
suggest to the people the application of some sort of birth control,
a taboo theme until now. It was the Albanian Fadil Hoxha (no
relation of Tirana's Hoxha), Kosovo's representative on
Yugoslavia's collective State Presidency, who discussed the
question of population growth in Kosovo during a recent visit to the
province.[3] He made, for instance, the startling announcement
that in Kosovo, which is one-third as large as Serbia, the
population increase this year would be 39,000, whereas in Serbia the
increase would be merely 30,000. He then suggested that his
audience should pay some attention to the problem of growth, though
he added quickly that he was not recommending birth control
through measures such as contraception but the establishment of
some sort of "order" and that everyone strive for the "best and
most secure" future for his children. In the field of demography
also, as in many other areas, the watches run differently in
Kosovo form the rest of the country. Because of the low overall
birthrate, Yugoslavia as a whole has initiated a policy of
population growth, yet to his Albanian audience in Kosovo Fadil Hoxha
repeated his appeal for caution, because, "like everything else,
in this direction also some sort of order and family planning
exists."

Of course, as Fadil Hoxha himself implied, the problem of
population growth in Kosovo is not confined to the question of
the creation of an ethnic balance in the province but is also
related to other issues, such as unemployment and youth problems,
which continue to act as strong destabilizing factors there. When
he spoke about the "security" of children, he had in mind the job
factor, which, with the province's current 80,000 unemployed (in
addition to the 50,000 migrant workers), constitutes one of the
most pressing issues. Then there is the youth problem and the
question of education. He pointed out, for example, that in
Vojvodina the schools remained empty, while in Kosovo, despite
the construction of new schools, thers was overcrowding.

Quite a different picture is presented by Albania. There,
the attitude is "the more the better," especially in view of a
slight drop in the rate of population growth in recent years. In
a recent article the theoretical monthly Rruga e Partis
examined the country's past, present, and future demographic
processes.[4] Apparently, the annual increase of 54,000 people during
the past 12 years had been 4 times higher than the average annual

[page 3]

RAD BR/253

increases in other European countries. During the same period the
urban population had grown annually by 22,000 and the rural
population by 32,000, in accordance, therefore, with the established
policy of proportional population growth. Through a strict
control of domestic emigration and by curbing deruralization, Tirana
has managed to keep unemployment under control. Moreover, Albania
has a population in which the young generation predominates:
those under 15 years constitute 37% of the total population, in
contrast to 21-27% in other European countries. The article
pointed out that the population under the age of 15 had been
growing during the past 10 years at a slower rate than the
population of working age, something that might affect the
availability of the labor force in the coming 5-year plan period. In
quoting Enver Hoxha, the article recommended that the rate of
population increase should be kept "more or less" at the present level,
by increasing the number of births and by lowering the infant (up
to one year old) mortality rate. To overcome the apparent drop in
the rate of population growth registered in the 1970s, Tirana had
passed a law in 1981 to extend the period of child birth leave
for mothers form 84 to 170 days. As a result, it was claimed in
the article, the average number of annual births had grown from
71,400 in the period 1978-1981 to 77,300 in 1982, an increase of
8.3%. A similar growth picture was also given for marriages: in
1970 there were 6.8 marriages per 1,000 inhabitants; in 1980, 8.1
per 1,000; and in 1982, 8.9 per 1,000.

The article predicted a population of 4,000,000 in Albania
by the year 2000 and said that growth was likely to continue at
approximately the present annual rate, whereas the average age of
the population would be about 28 years compared with 26 today.

1 Rilindja, 8 October 1983.

2 Ibiad.

3 Ibid.

4 "The Way of the Party," August 1983.

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